Key Takeaways
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Despite data and news supporting rate cuts in Europe, market sentiment continues to be driven by a focus on the US.
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Recession fears raised by the Sahm rule have evaporated and expectations of deep rate cuts in the US have receded.
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In Europe, pessimism about economic prospects is all pervasive. However, we think this is overdone and expect European growth to steadily improve over the next year.
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UK attention is focused on the upcoming budget at the end of the month
The last week should have been a good one for European interest rate markets. The ECB has all but promised a rate cut at its meeting next week, eurozone inflation fell below the 2% target for the first time in over 3 years, Italy and France presented tough budgets, and economic data showed a continued sluggish economy. Meanwhile, the governor of the Bank of England suggested that they might cut rates here faster too.
But no, US economic data dominated. This chart plots 2-year swap rates – in broad terms they measure expected official rates over the next two years. And they all jumped last week as events across the Atlantic dominated. US labour market data released on Friday were strong across the board. The prospects for US consumer spending also improved markedly as the statisticians revised numbers for savings. This was a very important change. Recession fears raised by something called the Sahm rule have evaporated (see Market Perspectives 5 August for details). Expectations of deep interest rate cuts in the US have receded. We do expect US inflation figures out later this week to show improvement but markets are highly nervous.
Source: Macrobond as at 07-Oct-24
Meanwhile over in Europe, pervasive pessimism about economic prospects stands in marked contrast. This is exaggerated by the data’s focus on Germany and manufacturing, respectively areas of considerable relative weakness. But there are areas showing recovery, notably housing. Of course, individual countries differ but the message is clear: improving confidence combined with falling inflation and interest rates is leading to a steady rise in house prices. Housing is both a leading indicator and an important transmission mechanism for monetary policy. I expect European growth to steadily improve over the next year.
Back in the UK attention is focussed on the upcoming budget at the end of the month. This will be a huge event, not least for UK financial markets. Our client webinar on 15 October will discuss this in detail and I’ll be joined by James McBride from Forefront. He’s an expert in this area having worked across Whitehall and the Labour Party. Contact your CTI rep for more details.