As we look towards what 2025 holds and the opportunities it will afford in real estate, it is worth first reflecting on the past 12 months. We have seen elections in major economies around the world and changes in human behaviour in response to evolving structural thematics, all of which have and will continue to impact in a plethora of ways. We saw inflation spiral, and the heightened cost of debt held back investment activity as ‘bid:ask’ spreads widened and real estate prices fell. But this cycle is different from the last one – the occupational sector has been resilient, posting positive rental growth for all sectors, even while capital values declined.
A turning point
Now there is a feeling that the market has reached a turning point. Inflation is trending down, providing for more clarity on the path of interest rates around the world which are beginning to ease, albeit at a slower pace than many initially anticipated. Global property prices have, by and large, stabilised and buyer and seller expectations are moving towards each other. There is of course, divergence by sector and geography, but we move into 2025 with a renewed, albeit cautious sense of optimism for investors, occupiers and developers of real estate.
Opportunities at both ends of the value spectrum
Logistics and the living sectors remain in favour. The growth of e-commerce and re-engineering of supply chains will support logistics whilst the dearth of quality residential stock will drive demand for the sector. Pricing may not have adjusted enough for some investors, but the long-term fundamentals of migration and population growth in specific areas are expected to feed investment performance over time. Retail is also back on the agenda for many investors, led by occupational trends which favour retail warehousing at the value end of the pricing spectrum (in many cases supporting omni-channel profitability) and prime high streets across European capital cities and tourist hot spots at the luxury end. Adopting a ‘barbell’ approach to investing at both ends of the value spectrum avoids mid-market centres most adversely affected by the rise in e-commerce. Offices are on the watch-list with the opportunity to buy targeted quality assets at or close to the bottom of the market. Europe has seen a flight-to-quality, which has left behind a shortage of quality stock. This has been additionally impacted by the slowdown in the development pipeline.
While sentiment is improving towards certain sectors and opportunities, maximising returns will require creativity and careful stock selection within real estate sectors. Examples include strategic land acquisitions that are then readied for development by securing planning or the repositioning of standing assets through refurbishment or change of use.
Active management is key
We are expecting a recovery to entrench over the course of 2025 as the economic backdrop improves. However, interest rates will remain elevated, weighing on growth and making fundraising challenging, although not impossible. The higher interest rate environment also highlights the importance of active asset management programmes. Gone are the days of simply taking the income. Each asset must work harder to maintain its relevance to investors, whether that is through diversification of income streams – for example, installing electric vehicle (EV) charging and/or photovoltaic (PV) panels on sites – or through measured capex programmes to increase value and return profit to investors. Asset managers need to invest in real estate sectors that offer the best prospects for growth and then strategically implement asset management programmes to protect and create value.
Positioning to outperform
The next 12 months will not be straightforward, but times of uncertainty are often where opportunities are potentially at their greatest. It is said that fortune favours the brave and those investors who can see through the current uncertainty will be the ones that capitalise on the movements in valuations and be well positioned to outperform the next market cycle.