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UMAP Posts

Is the UK heading for recession?

Steven Bell
Steven Bell
Chief Economist, EMEA

Key Takeaways

  • Optimism in the UK’s economic prospects has declined in recent months. Bad weather and a rise in domestic energy bills are partly to blame but the recent Budget has played a major role.
  • Labour-intensive sectors of the economy will face the burden of higher employer national insurance costs and a rise in the minimum wage.
  • Unemployment will likely rise but there are some positives. Inflation has edged higher but remains below wage growth so real incomes will rise a little in 2025.
  • Consumers are saving a healthy proportion of their savings, and the housing market is recovering. The Bank of England has suggested around 1% in rate cuts in 2025.
  • On balance, we expect sluggish growth in 2025 but believe that the UK will avoid recession.
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Is the UK heading for recession?

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The Columbia Threadneedle Universal MAP and Sustainable MAP ranges offer risk-controlled portfolio options designed to cover a host of client growth, income and sustainability needs.

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Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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The Fund is a sub fund of Columbia Threadneedle (UK) ICVC III, an open ended investment company (OEIC), registered in the UK and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

English language copies of the Fund’s Prospectus, summarised investor rights, English language copies of the key investor information document (KIID) can be obtained from Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AG, email: [email protected] or electronically at www.columbiathreadneedle.com. Please read the Prospectus before taking any investment decision.

The information provided in the marketing material does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in the Funds. The manager has the right to terminate the arrangements made for marketing.

Financial promotions are issued for marketing and information purposes; in the United Kingdom by Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in the EEA by Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., which is regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM); in Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

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