Interest rate cuts back on the agenda
Pessimism about the prospects for US interest rates cuts has been growing steadily as 2024 has developed. But there was a big change last Friday.
Total eclipse 2: the rebound in manufacturing
As the prospect of rate cuts dims, amid a manufacturing rebound pushing up metals prices, how do managers respond in their portfolios?
Is interest rate pessimism overdone?
The European Central Bank looks set to cut in June and there are reasons to believe the US and UK won’t be too far behind.
Earnings season: Will Q1 earnings deliver?
After a strong start to the earnings season, a big week lies ahead.
Interest rates, inflation and immigration
Do rising US rents, fuelled in part by higher immigration, call for a reappraisal of the likely scale and pace of US interest rate cuts?
The first cut is the easiest
With real rates rising as inflation falls, we explain why central banks should consider cutting interest rates soon.
Game On with inflation
Leading indicators imply falling UK inflation could be sustained. This, and rate cuts in Europe and the US, raise the odds of an easing in the UK.
Will sticky inflation stop the US cutting interest rates?
Disappointing data has dampened expectations around US rate cuts. We think that pessimism is overdone and explain why.
Interest cuts to start in June
Consensus for June rate cuts from the Fed and ECB are firm. What are the odds that the UK, seen as a laggard, could follow through too?
Interest rates, growth and financial markets
In the absence of significant economic contraction, central banks look set to hold off cutting rates until wage inflation eases. What can we expect from financial markets?
