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Insights

Tariffs and credit markets

David Oliphant
David Oliphant
Executive Director, Fixed Income

In the US, the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on imports from trading partners across the world has seen markets plunge. Here is what we are thinking as a credit desk and how we are approaching portfolios

Macro thoughts

  • We think the first thing to note is that President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday was well-flagged and diarised – though its effect on risk markets has been pronounced. There were nuances and some surprises contained in the treatment of various countries, but in aggregate this has been a theme playing out for at least this year, if not longer. Much of the large divergence we have seen in and between markets this year – including in government bonds, credit, equities, FX and so on – has come from the fear of trade tariffs and from the US’s economic, political and military relationships with other areas of the world.
  • One would have to assume higher tariffs means higher inflation – in one of the greatest challenges to globalisation seen in decades. All else being equal, higher inflation offers less ‘wiggle room’ to reduce interest rates for central banks – hence tighter monetary policy than might have been hoped for. The uncertainty of tariffs and the threat of an expanding trade war will also be less supportive for growth.
  • Companies will have less confidence to embark on capital expenditure and investment and be more reluctant to hire labour or make other such long-term plans. Some of this can be seen already in consumer and corporate confidence economic barometers, such as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Markets had already priced some of this.
  • When we look at consensus estimates of growth and inflation for the US, Europe and the UK, growth estimates have been reduced and inflation expectations have risen. Indeed, short-term measures of inflation expectations are the highest they have been for a couple of years in the US. We note that Deutsche Bank Research reduced its forecast for growth in the US this year from 2.2% to less than 1%, while it expects inflation to rise from 2.7% to 4%. Other investment bank forecasts followed suit over the weekend.

Credit thoughts

  • For credit markets, higher (than previously imagined) interest rates are likely to be a negative factor for spreads, with lower growth and the risk of recession a less positive, if not negative, environment – especially for more levered and cyclical businesses. More restrictive monetary policy and lower growth would have been easier to digest were valuations or spreads attractive. But that is not the case. Spreads in both investment grade and high yield trade tight to both shorter-term (five-year) and longer-term (20-year) averages. It is worth noting that spreads have widened by 28% for IG and 40% for global HY so far this year, according to data from ICE Indices. Yields remain elevated, however, and this has attracted (and will probably continue to do so) interest for income-seeking investors and kept ‘a lid’ on spreads.
  • We have viewed this environment as one in which the rewards for taking higher levels of credit risk are relatively low. Therefore it is a time for defensive portfolio construction. Consequently, we have run relatively low levels of aggregate credit risk (beta) compared to periods where, although risks might have appeared high, spreads offered a more compelling reward for taking such risk (for example, mid-2020). Hence, we have biased portfolios towards sectors that would be more resilient in this type of uncertain/tight spread environment, including utilities, telecoms and healthcare in IG, and are running levels of credit risk that have been reduced in the past year or so.
  • The outlook for trade, tariffs and the economy remains very uncertain and is open to substantial change at short notice. Questions remain about the likely response from trade partners (for example, China has already responded with 34% blanket tariff on US goods, and the European Union is in the process of drafting a response), as well as the fiscal response from the US and other countries.
  • In our risk budgets we limit the amount of risk we take in the less predictable, less repeatable sources of performance such as duration management (small) and FX management (none at all). Instead, we focus on sources of performance that are most likely to yield success – issuer and security selection – and we will continue to do this.

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In the US, the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on imports from trading partners across the world has seen markets plunge. Here is what we are thinking as a credit desk and how we are approaching portfolios.
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Tariffs and credit markets

Important information:

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香 港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

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Important information:

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香 港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

This document may be made available to you by an affiliated company which is part of the Columbia Threadneedle Investments group of companies: Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited in the UK; Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. © Columbia Threadneedle. All rights reserved.

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