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2025 Global Real Estate Outlook: Is property at a turning point?

Joanna Tano
Joanna Tano
Head of Research, Europe, Real Estate (EMEA)

As we look towards what 2025 holds and the opportunities it will afford in real estate, it is worth first reflecting on the past 12 months. We have seen elections in major economies around the world and changes in human behaviour in response to evolving structural thematics, all of which have and will continue to impact in a plethora of ways. We saw inflation spiral, and the heightened cost of debt held back investment activity as ‘bid:ask’ spreads widened and real estate prices fell. But this cycle is different from the last one – the occupational sector has been resilient, posting positive rental growth for all sectors, even while capital values declined.

A turning point

Now there is a feeling that the market has reached a turning point. Inflation is trending down, providing for more clarity on the path of interest rates around the world which are beginning to ease, albeit at a slower pace than many initially anticipated. Global property prices have, by and large, stabilised and buyer and seller expectations are moving towards each other. There is of course, divergence by sector and geography, but we move into 2025 with a renewed, albeit cautious sense of optimism for investors, occupiers and developers of real estate.

Opportunities at both ends of the value spectrum

Logistics and the living sectors remain in favour. The growth of e-commerce and re-engineering of supply chains will support logistics whilst the dearth of quality residential stock will drive demand for the sector. Pricing may not have adjusted enough for some investors, but the long-term fundamentals of migration and population growth in specific areas are expected to feed investment performance over time. Retail is also back on the agenda for many investors, led by occupational trends which favour retail warehousing at the value end of the pricing spectrum (in many cases supporting omni-channel profitability) and prime high streets across European capital cities and tourist hot spots at the luxury end. Adopting a ‘barbell’ approach to investing at both ends of the value spectrum avoids mid-market centres most adversely affected by the rise in e-commerce. Offices are on the watch-list with the opportunity to buy targeted quality assets at or close to the bottom of the market. Europe has seen a flight-to-quality, which has left behind a shortage of quality stock. This has been additionally impacted by the slowdown in the development pipeline.

While sentiment is improving towards certain sectors and opportunities, maximising returns will require creativity and careful stock selection within real estate sectors. Examples include strategic land acquisitions that are then readied for development by securing planning or the repositioning of standing assets through refurbishment or change of use.

Active management is key

We are expecting a recovery to entrench over the course of 2025 as the economic backdrop improves. However, interest rates will remain elevated, weighing on growth and making fundraising challenging, although not impossible. The higher interest rate environment also highlights the importance of active asset management programmes. Gone are the days of simply taking the income. Each asset must work harder to maintain its relevance to investors, whether that is through diversification of income streams – for example, installing electric vehicle (EV) charging and/or photovoltaic (PV) panels on sites – or through measured capex programmes to increase value and return profit to investors. Asset managers need to invest in real estate sectors that offer the best prospects for growth and then strategically implement asset management programmes to protect and create value.

Positioning to outperform

The next 12 months will not be straightforward, but times of uncertainty are often where opportunities are potentially at their greatest. It is said that fortune favours the brave and those investors who can see through the current uncertainty will be the ones that capitalise on the movements in valuations and be well positioned to outperform the next market cycle.

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2025 Global Real Estate Outlook: Is property at a turning point?

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

 

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

 

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes only.

 

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

 

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

 

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

 

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

 

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

 

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

 

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)
No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

Along with Columbia Threadneedle’s in-house Research and Lionstone Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including, but not exclusively, Oxford Economics, Property Market Analysis, MSCI (www.msci.com/notice-and-disclaimer), Moody’s, CoStar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

 

In relation to data and information sourced from or provided by Property Market Analysis LLP, nothing herein expressed or implied is intended or shall be construed to confer upon or give to any person any rights or remedies under or by reason of this document. No third party is entitled to rely on any of the statements and/or information contained in this document, and no entity referred to herein assumes any liability to any third party because of any reliance on the statements and/or information contained in this document.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

 

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing document. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services.

 

The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes only.

 

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. Real estate investing involves risks, including, without limitation: (i) actual operating results; (ii) interest rates; (iii) availability and costs of financing; (iv) economic and market conditions; (v) date of expected exit; (vi) increases in costs of materials or services beyond projections; (vii) force majeure events (e.g., terrorist attacks, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, war); (viii) supply/demand imbalances; (ix) currency fluctuations; (x) litigation and disputes relating to investments with joint venture partners or third parties; (xi) changes in zoning and other laws; (xii) inability to obtain necessary licenses and permits; (xiii) competition; and (xiv) changes in tax law and tax treatment and disallowance of tax positions.

 

The value of directly-held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent redemptions may requite the manager to sell properties at a lower market value adversely affecting the value of your investment.

 

The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either.

 

Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This is a marketing document. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

 

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

 

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

 

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)
No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

 

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

 

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other person should act upon it. This document and its contents and any other information or opinions subsequently supplied or given to you are strictly confidential and for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of CTIME. By accepting delivery of this presentation, you agree that it is not to be copied or reproduced in whole or in part and that you will not disclose its contents to any other person.

 

Along with Columbia Threadneedle’s in-house Research and Lionstone Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including, but not exclusively, Oxford Economics, Property Market Analysis, MSCI (www.msci.com/notice-and-disclaimer), Moody’s, CoStar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

 

In relation to data and information sourced from or provided by Property Market Analysis LLP, nothing herein expressed or implied is intended or shall be construed to confer upon or give to any person any rights or remedies under or by reason of this document. No third party is entitled to rely on any of the statements and/or information contained in this document, and no entity referred to herein assumes any liability to any third party because of any reliance on the statements and/or information contained in this document.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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